Germania, Francia e Usa pensano a proteggersi dagli investimenti cinesi e l’Italia invece accoglie a braccia aperte…


Investimenti cinesi Italia protezionismo. Davanti all’avanzata dei cinesi Germania, Francia e Stati Uniti hanno iniziato ad agire pensando a dei paletti protezionistici. Una preoccupazione comprensibile: quando gli investimenti arrivano da un paese a partito unico, senza Parlamento, con la banca centrale sotto controllo dell’esecutivo, qualche domanda bisogna farsela.
L’acquisto dell’Inter da parte del gruppo cinese Suning ha portato in primo piano anche in Italia l’attuale strategia diffusa di investimenti all’estero delle imprese cinesi che – non solo nel calcio. Quando CF – calcioefinanza.it a fine maggio 2015 scrisse del piano cinese sul calcio in pochi si preoccupavano di analizzare quello che di lì a poco sarebbe diventato il fenomeno più discusso. Nei mesi successivi si sono susseguite le operazioni: Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Infront.
La lunga marcia delle aziende cinesi alla conquista del mondo – oggetto di una approfondita analisi pubblicata oggi da Affari e Finanza de La Repubblica – prova a mettere il turbo. E le prede designate (Berlino, Parigi e Usa in primis) – colte di sorpresa – preparano la più inattesa delle risposte: una Muraglia protezionista 2.0 per frenare un espansionismo imprenditoriale che ha fatto rizzare più di un’antenna negli ambienti diplomatici occidentali.
Nei primi cinque mesi del 2016 (dati Dealogic) i big cinesi hanno comprato società straniere per un totale di 143 miliardi di dollari, il 33% in più dei 107 dell’intero 2015. Hanno messo le mani tra l’altro sul software della norvegese Opera e sul glorioso Aston Villa recentemente retrocesso dalla Premier League.
Non è finita qui: fra le altre “prede” gli studios hollywoodiani della Legendary, la più grande azienda agricola dell’Australia, l’agrochimica della Syngenta, costata a ChemChina (già padrona di Pirelli) ben 43 miliardi di dollari.
La strategia (e le ragioni) di questa svolta non sono difficili da comprendere. Il rallentamento dell’economia cinese ha fatto calare le possibilità di investimento domestico e così si è iniziato a guardare fuori dai confini una volta, con il Pil interno che cresceva del 20%, non c’era nessuna ragione per avventurarsi oltrefrontiera. C’è oltretutto un surplus di risparmi enorme che si è spostato dal settore pubblico a quello privato.

Tanti diversi tycoon nazionali – all’improvviso e dietro la spinta ideologica di un documento redatto dal comitato di pianificazione centrale guidato dal segretario del Partito Comunista Xi Jinping – partono separati ma colpiscono uniti.
La campagna d’Italia del Dragone è la fotografia fedele di questa strategia. La scalata di ChemChina a Pirelli ha messo il nostro paese in testa agli investimenti tra le principali nazioni del vecchio Continente.
Per acquisire imprese tricolori, i cinesi hanno speso nel 2015 7,8 miliardi, molto di più di quanto hanno fatto per aziende francesi (3,6 miliardi), Regno Unito (3,3 miliardi), Paesi Bassi (2,5 miliardi) e la Germania (1,3 miliardi). Qui avevamo riportato una analisi sul fenomeno.
La Cina (che ha più d’una ragione per guardare con interesse al calcio italiano) non è calata nella penisola solo con atteggiamento “predatorio”, ma perseguendo anche una attenta strategia di consenso politico.
Lo dimostrano le operazioni che hanno portato ossigeno alle casse statali e allo stesso tempo hanno riportato l’Italia al centro delle attenzioni della comunità finanziaria internazionale: Shanghai Electric ha rilevato per 400 milioni il 40% di Ansaldo Energia.
Poi c’è stata l’acquisizione del 30% di Cdp Reti, la holding che ha in pancia la quota di controllo sia di Snam che di Terna.
Così come non è passato inosservato l’acquisto di pacchetti attorno al 2 per cento del capitale delle principali società quotate in Borsa, da Unicredit all’Enel, da Intesa Sanpaolo a Eni. Ossigeno per un listino (e un paese) un po’ in difficolta.
Questo approccio “istituzionale” ha funzionato bene pure in Grecia, paese destinato a diventare la testa di ponte in Europa della nuova via della seta commerciale pianificata da Pechino. La Cosco si è comprata il controllo del porto del Pireo, altre aziende pubbliche cinesi stanno puntando le ferrovie e intanto i tycoon nazionali acquisiscono infrastrutture lungo la via balcanica che porterà il fiume di merci nazionali verso il cuore dell’Europa.
Grecia e Italia, però, sono casi un po’ particolari. Paesi indebitati che di fronte a un malloppo di yuan pronti a essere investiti sul proprio sistema industriale (e magari sui propri titoli di Stato) non possono permettersi di farsi troppe domande. Non sempre però funziona così.

E nelle ultime settimane Berlino, Parigi e Washington, con una coincidenza che per molti non è una coincidenza, hanno iniziato a mettere qualche paletto alla campagna acquisti di Pechino.
Gli Stati Uniti, come tradizione, sono stati i primi a mettersi di traverso. Quarantaquattro parlamentari hanno spedito a inizio 2016 una lettera alla Casa Bianca chiedendo nuove regole per le acquisizioni in arrivo dal Far east. Le autorità statunitensi da allora hanno bocciato ben 27 scalate del Dragone e la moral suasion dell’amministrazione ha raggiunto anche la Silicon Valley.
La Fairchild semiconductor, per dire, ha snobbato un’offerta miliardaria di un’azienda pubblica cinese accettando invece quella di un consorzio made in the Usa inferiore del 10%. In molti, oltretutto, guardano con curiosità all’atteggiamento che Donald TRump terrà nei confronti di questo fenomeno. Il tycoon per ora ha solo annunciato di voler imporre dazi al 45% alle merci in arrivo da Pechino. Un messaggio chiaro che – non a caso – ha fatto spostare dagli Stati Uniti all’Europa il faro delle acquisizioni. Anche qui, però, il barometro ha iniziato a spostarsi verso il brutto tempo.
Anzi, in Germania punta deciso verso la tempesta. La pietra dello scandalo, in questo caso, è l’offerta da 4,6 miliardi di dollari della cinese Midea per la Kuka. Il problema è che il gruppo di robotica tedesco non è un’azienda qualsiasi, ma il fornitore delle macchine che costruiscono buona parte degli impianti per l’industria automobilistica nazionale.
La lobby di Berlino si è così messa in moto per trovare un’alternativa, con la politica scesa in campo in prima persona per mettere assieme una cordata di campioni domestici guidata da Siemens e partecipata da Volkswagen & C.. E superare l’offerta di Pechino.
Jin Jiang, primo azionista con il 15% della catena alberghiera transalpina Accor, ha iniziato un po’ alla volta ad alzare la sua partecipazione e non fa mistero di puntare ora alla maggioranza. La Francia però non ci sta. Accor è uno dei simboli nazionali, la grandeur è sempre la grandeur.
E alla fine è sceso in campo a dire la sua il presidente Francois Hollande in persona: «Accor ha un socio cinese solo perchè vuole crescere con lui nel Far East – ha detto – ma state tranquilli che tengo un occhio attento a quello che sta succedendo nel suo azionariato».

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